September 26th marks the International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons. This year’s event comes amid ever-mounting tensions – with dangerously ambiguous changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, the expansion of the conflict in the Middle East, and several nuclear exercises and missile tests – that underscore the current risk we face and shows why it is more urgent than ever to get rid of these weapons once and for all.
The current (and rising) risk of nuclear weapons use
Only days after states adopted the Pact for the Future recommitting them all to “make every effort to avert the danger of such a [nuclear] war,” we are already seeing nuclear-armed states and their allies actively undermine those promises.
On 25 September 2024, President Putin publicly announced a long-trailed change to the Russian nuclear doctrine that determines when Russia would use nuclear weapons, expanding it to consider nuclear responses to attacks by non-nuclear powers that have the support of nuclear-armed states (it does not define what constitutes support), and modifying the earlier distinction about only using nuclear weapons if the survival of the state was in jeopardy to responding to a critical threat to its sovereignty.
But Russia’s nuclear doctrine is not the only point of concern. Israel – another nuclear-armed state – is also actively involved in a conflict that is spreading across the Middle East and risks further escalation. Meanwhile, China carried out its first publicly acknowledged ICBM test in decades, seeming to follow a pattern established by Russia , the US (as well as India, Pakistan and North Korea) in testing nuclear capable missiles in recent months and showing China’s intention to be part of a multi-actor nuclear arms race. Meanwhile the French Air Force is running its third nuclear strike exercise this year: POKER, meaning its personnel are practising the use of weapons of mass destruction.
These actions demonstrate why the UN warns that the risk of nuclear weapons use is the highest it has been in decades, with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres telling the participants at the UN General Assembly’s High Level Week that: “nuclear posturing and new weapons cast a dark shadow. We are edging towards the unimaginable – a powder keg that risks engulfing the world.” The nine nuclear-armed states put everything and everyone at risk with these actions, and they know it, which is why they are all waging public relations campaigns to paint their rivals as the irresponsible nuclear powers. But the reality is that the only way to end the risk is to get rid of nuclear weapons altogether.
Why we mark the 26th of September
The IDTENW is an annual day to raise public awareness about the threat posed to humanity by nuclear weapons and the necessity for their total elimination and to push states to recommit to nuclear disarmament as a priority. It is also the anniversary of a terrifying ‘near miss’: when Soviet Lt. Col. Stanislav Petrov determined that the early warning system he was monitoring was malfunctioning when it showed of an incoming American strike – it turned out to be the sun’s reflection off clouds, preventing nuclear war.
At the UN, the day is marked with a High-level Meeting at the General Assembly that has its 79th session this year. It is also an opportunity to educate the public – and their leaders – about the real benefits of eliminating such weapons, and the social and economic costs of perpetuating them.
How to reach the total elimination of Nuclear Weapons
Since 2017, an alternative exists, and more countries are rejecting nuclear weapons forever through the only treaty to comprehensively ban them: the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. Global support for the TPNW continues to grow, with Indonesia, Sierra Leone and the Solomon Islands becoming the latest states to ratify the landmark agreement on September 24th. There are now 73 states parties and a further 25 signatories. Find out if your country is among them.
