Significance

We leveraged a 44-y population study of Neotropical understory birds from a protected forest reserve in central Panama to document widespread and severe declines in bird abundance. Our findings provide evidence that tropical bird populations may be undergoing systematic declines, even in relatively intact forests. The implications of these findings are that biodiversity baselines may be shifting over time, and large tracts of tropical forest may not be sufficient for maintaining stable bird populations. Our study highlights the importance of long-term monitoring for detecting cryptic losses in biodiversity and motivates the need for future work drilling down to the underlying mechanisms to understand and mitigate future declines.

Abstract

Long-term studies on the population dynamics of tropical resident birds are few, and it remains poorly understood how their populations have fared in recent decades. Here, we analyzed a 44-y population study of a Neotropical understory bird assemblage from a protected forest reserve in central Panama to determine if and how populations have changed from 1977 to 2020. Using the number of birds captured in mist nets as an index of local abundance, we estimated trends over time for a diverse suite of 57 resident species that comprised a broad range of ecological and behavioral traits. Estimated abundances of 40 (∼70%) species declined over the sampling period, whereas only 2 increased. Furthermore, declines were severe: 35 of the 40 declining species exhibited large proportional losses in estimated abundance, amounting to ≥50% of their initial estimated abundances. Declines were largely independent of ecology (i.e., body mass, foraging guild, or initial abundance) or phylogenetic affiliation. These widespread, severe declines are particularly alarming, given that they occurred in a relatively large (∼22,000-ha) forested area in the absence of local fragmentation or recent land-use change. Our findings provide robust evidence of tropical bird declines in intact forests and bolster a large body of literature from temperate regions suggesting that bird populations may be declining at a global scale. Identifying the ecological mechanisms underlying these declines should be an urgent conservation priority.