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Preserving the nuclear test ban after Russia revoked its CTBT ratification

The last few years were not a good time for arms control treaties. In 2023, Russia suspended its participation in New START and formally pulled out of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. Attempts to restart the US-Russian dialogue on strategic stability have failed because Russia firmly insists on linking any progress in arms control to a broader normalization of relations with the United States—which, given the continuing war in Ukraine, is a very distant prospect.

In another disturbing development that year, Russia officially withdrew its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) in November, prompting concerns that this was a step toward the resumption of full-scale nuclear tests. The fact that it happened in the context of the war in Ukraine added to the tension, especially as some Russian propagandists and experts close to the government were advocating for some kind of a nuclear gesture that would demonstrate Russia’s resolve to curtail western support of Ukraine.

References

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Babiarz, R. 2023. “Satellite Imagery of the Lop Nur Site.” The New York Times. December 20. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/12/20/science/lop-nur-public-report.html.

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Ifft, E. 2020. “The New Threat to the Test-Ban Treaty.” Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, 62(5), pp. 55–64. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2020.1819643.

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Mian, Z. 2016. “A step toward what? Nuclear weapons, the test ban, and a world without nuclear testing.” The Nonproliferation Review. 23(3–4), pp. 301–315. https://doi.org/10.1080/10736700.2016.1263487.

Nilsen, T. 2023. “No signs of any imminent nuclear tests at Novaya Zemlya.” The Independent Barents Observer. October 7. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/2023/10/no-signs-any-immediate-nuclear-tests-novaya-zemlya.

Podvig, P. 2023. “Why a Russian nuclear expert thinks the Doomsday Clock should move away from midnight.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. November 8. https://thebulletin.org/2023/11/why-a-russian-nuclear-expert-thinks-the-doomsday-clock-should-move-away-from-midnight/.

Putin, V. 2023. “Presidential Address to Federal Assembly.” http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70565.

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US Department of State. 2020. “Adherence to and Compliance with Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament Agreements and Commitments.” US Department of State.  https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/2020-Adherence-to-and-Compliance-with-Arms-Control-Nonproliferation-and-Disarmament-Agreements-and-Commitments-Compliance-Report.pdf.

Keywords: CTBTChinaComprehensive Nuclear Test Ban TreatyNevada Test SiteNorth KoreaRussiaarms controlnuclear weapons tests
Topics: Nuclear RiskNuclear Weapons