Scholars and conservationists released a briefing this week urging emergency water-saving measures to prevent the looming collapse of Utah’s Great Salt Lake.

Without an urgent, dramatic increase in water flow, “the lake as we know it is on track to disappear in five years,” stated the report, led by Benjamin Abbott, a professor of ecosystem ecology at Brigham Young University.

Decades of overconsumption of water throughout the region, and a mega-drought made worse by climate change, threaten to further shrink the lake and cause great harm to the region’s public health, environment and economy, Abbott told USA TODAY. 

Politicians, residents, farmers and industry made great strides forward in recent years, he said, but “extraordinary, emergency measures” are needed to be better stewards.

How low is the lake?

In 2021, the lake reached its smallest point ever, 941 square miles, down from a peak of about 2,400 miles in 1986-1987, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

“We’re at a point where more than half the lake bed is exposed,” Abbott said. The lake is so low one measuring gauge has been out of use since September.

“At 19 feet below the average level the lake has maintained since 1850, the lake is in uncharted territory,” stated the report. Unsustainable water use dries out the habitat, exposes toxic dust and drives salinity higher and higher. 

Salinity historically averaged between 10% and 15%, Abbott said. Today it’s at 19%, five-and-a-half times saltier than the ocean.

If the rate of decline continues, the lake’s remaining water could be depleted, he said. “It’s a terrifying prospect.”

Will there be any water left the Great Salt Lake in 5 years?

The remaining water could be gone in about 5 years if the lake keeps drying up at its current rate, the report says.

If the lake stays on that path, its food webs will collapse and “the lake as we know it will be gone,” Abbott said. “We’re not making a prediction that 5 years from now there will be no water. We are making the observation that the rate of decline if it continues is enough to deplete the remaining water in the lake.”

Over the last three years, the lake has received less than a third of its natural streamflow because of excessive water diversions.

In 2022, the lake dropped to a record elevation of 4188’ — the lowest level on the state’s contingency charts.

Water depletion is even more severe than it appears because groundwater is not included in the estimates. While the lake has lost about 26 million acre-feet of water, twice that amount may have been lost from declining water levels in aquifers around the lake. These empty aquifers could slow the rate of rebound after runoff is increased.

Report details lake’s importance

The Great Salt Lake lies along a critical flyway, attracting an estimated 10 million birds a year. Roughly 350 bird species depend on its ecosystems. 

It provides $2.5 billion in direct economic productivity, primarily from mineral extraction, recreation and brine shrimp harvesting, and supports 9,000 jobs. 

Evaporation from the lake increases annual snowfall in nearby mountains and ski resorts by 5-10%, supporting an additional $1.8 billion in economic activity. 

Its water suppresses heavy metals and cyanotoxins that accumulated in sediments over hundreds of years. When sediments are exposed, toxic dust can blow all over the country, Bennett said. “Already dust from the lake has been observed as far away as Wyoming and Arizona.” 

Steps needed for recovery

The report urges Utah Governor Spencer Cox to implement a watershed-wide emergency rescue, with financial support from the legislature. It also lists these items:  

Enough water conservation upstream to ensure that more than a million acre feet of water per year is sent to the lake. 

As much as a 30% – 50% reduction in water use in the entire watershed 

A “lake first” approach to water stewardship 

Increased trust and cooperation between farmers, cities and policy makers. 

Overuse led to this point

Profligate water use for decades contributed to the crisis as the region grew more populous. Increasing demands for water have forced utilities, farmers and other water users to grapple with a shrinking water supply.

Today, more water needs to make its way all the way down through rivers and dams far upstream of the lake, Abbott said. “It’s like running a bank account. You have to make sure the income is greater than the expenses, otherwise you’re borrowing from the future.” 

“We can be careful caretakers of this ecosystem and wise stewards,” he said. “Or we can say it doesn’t matter what happens in the future, and we’re just going to think about today.”

A call for unity

Tim Hawkes is among the state legislators who have worked to change Utah’s water laws and invest in lake restoration.

“There’s been an ethic on the lake for decades of stakeholders trying to work together,” said Hawkes, an outgoing Republican member of the House of Representatives. “It speaks to Utah and how we problem solve.” 

Because some of the measures are still being implemented, the region is coming up short, thanks in part to the drought, and needs to “pull some emergency levers” to reverse the lake’s trajectory, he said. “We’re going to have to do a lot and do it fast, and the only way to do that is to try to keep people on the same script and working together.”