By Steven Pifer, March 7, 2024

Beginning in 1963, the United States has accepted increasingly stringent limitations on its ability to test nuclear weapons. Efforts to restrict nuclear testing culminated in 1996 with completion of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), prohibiting tests that generate a nuclear yield. However, 28 years later, in part due to the US Senate’s failure to consent to ratification, that treaty is not in force, though North Korea is the only state to have conducted a nuclear test since 1998.

The Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP) now provides confidence in the reliability of US nuclear weapons without the need for nuclear explosive testing. Advances in the means to detect nuclear tests, including the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization’s International Monitoring System, mean almost any test would be exposed. The treaty is manifestly in the US national interest, as it would prevent other nuclear weapons states from advancing their nuclear knowledge and expertise and producing more sophisticated nuclear weapons. The United States is one of nine states whose failure to ratify prevents the treaty’s entry into force. An effort to secure Senate consent to ratification would require a determined push by the White House, but in present circumstances even that would probably fall short given the difficult international climate and domestic US politics. The treaty will remain in limbo for some time to come.

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Keywords:CTBT, China, Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, Nevada Test Site, North Korea, Russia, arms control, nuclear weapons tests
Topics:Nuclear Risk, Nuclear Weapons